Croydon population growth
Strategy says on population growth
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(thousands)
Actual 2001 population (per 2001 census) 331 Estimated population 2010 342 Projected population 2031 380 |
Crowds at East Croydon station - too many people for too little infrastructure?
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Partnerships say on population growth
Croydon population growth 1901 to 2001
The historical evolution of Croydon's population since 1901 is interesting. Croydon experienced strong population growth from 1901 (population: 142k) to its peak population in 1971 (population: 334k). Interestingly, Croydon's population grew strongly in the post war period up to 1971 at a time when London's overall population declined. It would seem that Croydon's vibrant economy up to 1971 was the key factor in generating this post war population growth. However, as Croydon's economic vibrancy waned after 1971, its population growth stagnated. Its 2001 population of 331k was slighly less than the 334k of 30 years previously.
A long term development plan needs accurate population estimates and projections so as adequate schools, hospitals, policing, transport and jobs will be in place. Unfortunately, the last accurate information on Croydon's population dates back to the 2001 census. The most recent UK census was taken on 27 March 2011 - but the first release of information will not be available until September 2012.
In the absense of accurate up to date census information, it is nesessary to rely on less accurate estimates of Croydon's current population. The Strategy estimates that Croydon's population has increased by only 3% since the 2001 census. This low rate of population growth seems at variance with the large numbers of newcomers to Croydon over the past decade and the levels of new house building. We have calculated our own independent population estimate and projection based on Croydon’s new house building and reasonable assumptions on the average number of inhabitants per existing household.
Our calculation shows a much higher current and future population than the Strategy as the comparison below shows:
Partnerships Strategy Difference
(thousands) (thousands) (thousands)
Actual 2001 population (per 2001 census) 331 331
Estimated population 2010 357 342 15
Estimated % growth 2001 to 2010 8% 3%
Projected population 2031 421 380 35
Estimated % growth 2001 to 2031 27% 15%
We would highlight in particular that the Strategy is targeting 21,500 new houses in the period to 2031 but is assuming a population increase of only 38,200 - which equates to only 1.8 inhabitants per new house. This seems unreasonably low as the Strategy requires 48% of the new houses to be family homes - i.e. 3 or more bedrooms. The following analysis estimates an additional 63k inhabitants assuming a more reasonable 4 inhabitants per family house and 2 inhabitants per smaller house/flat:
A long term development plan needs accurate population estimates and projections so as adequate schools, hospitals, policing, transport and jobs will be in place. Unfortunately, the last accurate information on Croydon's population dates back to the 2001 census. The most recent UK census was taken on 27 March 2011 - but the first release of information will not be available until September 2012.
In the absense of accurate up to date census information, it is nesessary to rely on less accurate estimates of Croydon's current population. The Strategy estimates that Croydon's population has increased by only 3% since the 2001 census. This low rate of population growth seems at variance with the large numbers of newcomers to Croydon over the past decade and the levels of new house building. We have calculated our own independent population estimate and projection based on Croydon’s new house building and reasonable assumptions on the average number of inhabitants per existing household.
Our calculation shows a much higher current and future population than the Strategy as the comparison below shows:
Partnerships Strategy Difference
(thousands) (thousands) (thousands)
Actual 2001 population (per 2001 census) 331 331
Estimated population 2010 357 342 15
Estimated % growth 2001 to 2010 8% 3%
Projected population 2031 421 380 35
Estimated % growth 2001 to 2031 27% 15%
We would highlight in particular that the Strategy is targeting 21,500 new houses in the period to 2031 but is assuming a population increase of only 38,200 - which equates to only 1.8 inhabitants per new house. This seems unreasonably low as the Strategy requires 48% of the new houses to be family homes - i.e. 3 or more bedrooms. The following analysis estimates an additional 63k inhabitants assuming a more reasonable 4 inhabitants per family house and 2 inhabitants per smaller house/flat:
| Croydons new house building and population increase |
Population discussion board
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